🔗 Share this article

While dawn illuminated the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, delegates remained stuck in a windowless conference room, unaware whether it was day or night. For more than 12 hours in difficult discussions, with scores ministers representing multiple blocs of countries including the most vulnerable nations to the richest economies.

Tempers were short, the air thick as sweaty delegates faced up to the harsh reality: they were unlikely to achieve a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The 30th UN climate conference faced the brink of abject failure.

The major obstacle: Fossil fuels

Research has demonstrated for well over a century, the CO2 emissions produced by consuming fossil fuels is increasing temperatures on our planet to critical levels.

Nevertheless, during over three decades of annual climate meetings, the crucial requirement to stop fossil fuel use has been mentioned only once – in a resolution made two years ago at Cop28 to "transition away from fossil fuels". Officials from the Arab Group, Russia, and multiple other countries were determined this would not happen again.

Growing momentum for change

Meanwhile, a expanding group of countries were similarly resolved that progress on this issue was crucially important. They had developed a proposal that was gathering expanding support and made it clear they were willing to dig in.

Less wealthy nations urgently needed to make progress on securing financial assistance to help them cope with the growing impacts of climate disasters.

Breaking point

In the pre-dawn period of Saturday, some delegates were ready to walk out and trigger failure. "The situation was precarious for us," commented one energy minister. "I considered to walk away."

The breakthrough happened through negotiations with Saudi Arabia. Near 6am, senior representatives split from the main group to hold a closed-door meeting with the head Saudi negotiator. They encouraged wording that would subtly reference the global commitment to "move beyond fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Unanticipated resolution

Instead of explicitly namechecking fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the UAE consensus". Following reflection, the Saudi delegation unforeseeably agreed to the wording.

Participants expressed relief. Applause rang out. The agreement was done.

With what became known as the "Belém political package", the world took a modest advance towards the phaseout of fossil fuels – a hesitant, limited step that will barely interrupt the climate's continued progression towards disaster. But nevertheless a important shift from complete stagnation.

Important aspects of the agreement

• Complementing the indirect reference in the official document, countries will commence creating a framework to gradually eliminate fossil fuels
• This will be largely a optional undertaking led by Brazil that will deliver findings next year
• Addressing the essential decreases in greenhouse gas emissions to not exceed the 1.5C limit was similarly postponed to next year
• Developing countries secured a significant expansion to $120bn of yearly funding to help them manage the impacts of extreme weather
• This amount will not be completely provided until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "just transition mechanism" to help people working in fossil fuel sectors move toward the sustainable sector

Varied responses

With global conditions approaches the brink of climate "critical thresholds" that could devastate environments and throw whole regions into crisis, the agreement was insufficient as the "significant advancement" needed.

"Cop30 gave us some baby steps in the right direction, but given the magnitude of the climate crisis, it has fallen short of the occasion," cautioned one climate expert.

This limited deal might have been the best attainable, given the political challenges – including a American leader who ignored the talks and remains committed to oil and coal, the growing influence of conservative movements, persistent fighting in multiple regions, intolerable levels of inequality, and global economic volatility.

"Major polluters – the fossil fuel giants – were ultimately in the crosshairs at the climate summit," notes one environmental advocate. "There is no turning back on that. The opportunity is open. Now we must convert it to a actual pathway to a more secure planet."

Major disagreements revealed

Although nations were able to welcome the official adoption of the deal, Cop30 also exposed significant divisions in the sole international mechanism for confronting the climate crisis.

"UN negotiations are agreement-dependent, and in a period of geopolitical divides, consensus is increasingly difficult to reach," commented one senior UN official. "We should not suggest that this summit has provided all that is needed. The disparity between our current position and what science demands remains dangerously wide."

Should the world is to avert the gravest consequences of climate crisis, the international negotiations alone will prove insufficient.